Notes from Iowa

The Iowa Caucus results were quite a surprise. Both the big-spending, ‘Establishment’ candidates, Clinton and Romney were comfortably beaten by Obama and Huckabee respectively. More about the results here. Following are some of the thoughts I had looking at the results and the Entrance polling numbers.

Ø It’s now pretty certain that Change is going to be the overarching theme of this election. That is bad news for Hillary. She has played the ‘change’ card herself quite liberally but when in the last 20 years, the occupant of the White House has had either the name Bush or Clinton and you carry one of those names, people are going to be wary of you espousing the cause of change

Ø Obama’s victory speech was quite remarkable, very stirring and inspirational. He pitched the day as a kind of watershed in US politics and he might be right. The Clintons better get their act together in New Hampshire because it is very possible that Obama might get on a roll from here. He comfortably won this 97% white state, defeated Mrs. Clinton 5-1 amongst young people and even beat her among women voters.

Ø One thing I really like about Obama is that he never ever plays the Race card. Good stuff!

Ø Edwards needed to win. He didn’t. I think he’s done as are all the other also-rans. It’s now basically down to Obama vs Clinton.

Ø Huckabee’s win on the Republican side is a slap in the face of all the cynics who believe that money is all that is needed to win a US election. Romney poured loads of money into Iowa, outspent Huckabee 5-1 but still got comfortably beaten. Great credit to Huckabee’s grassroots campaign in the state.


Ø Evangelicals proved once again that at least in the interior states, they still form the core of the Republican party.

Ø If not for his background and for the fact that he is way off the map on some issues; Huckabee might have been a great candidate. He communicates well, has great presence and carries himself with a quiet dignity that most of his peers lack. However, it’s still a huge stretch to see him as the candidate and even a greater stretch to see him mounting a credible campaign even if he gets the nomination.

Ø Romney is a bit too intellectual. He appeals to the head, not to the heart. Also, he’s gotten too negative too early. A loss in New Hampshire and he’s probably finished- remarkable given the amount of money he has.

Ø Republican field is basically down to four-Huckabee, Romney, McCain and Guiliani with Fred Thompson still in with a shout. Guiliani’s unique late-state strategy is a huge gamble but given what happened to Romney in Iowa, it might be a masterstroke.

Ø Romney’s failure in Iowa raised one important question- Is the old Reagan coalition of social conservatives, fiscal conservatives and national security conservatives still viable? Romney’s efforts to rebuild it in Iowa were unsuccessful. Will he or someone else succeed in other places and if not, what does it mean for the future direction of the Republican party?

Ø Just a word of caution before signing off- Reagan, Bush Sr. and Bill Clinton all lost in Iowa. Iowa tells us a lot but there’s still a long way to go.